China’s Car Market: Traditional Brands Play Safe, EV Startups Go Big

China’s car makers are setting their 2026 targets, and the approaches couldn’t be more different. The old-school manufacturers are playing it safe with steady growth, while the new EV startups and tech brands are going all out.

Take Geely, for example. After selling over 3 million cars in 2025, they’re aiming for 3.45 million this year which is about 14% more. Most of that growth comes from EVs, which they’re really pushing. 

Changan wants to sell 3.3 million cars, including 1.4 million EVs, while Chery is planning 3.2 million units with 17 new models. Dongfeng is shooting for 3.25 million, with a big chunk being EVs and 600,000 going overseas. Even Great Wall Motors is cautious, setting a target of 1.8 million cars, still a solid jump from last year.

Now, the EV newcomers are aiming for the stars. Leapmotor, which doubled its deliveries in 2025, wants to hit 1 million cars this year marking a massive 67.5% jump. 

Xiaomi is aiming for 550,000, adding four new models to the mix. Nio is targeting 40–50% growth, relying on new high-end EVs like the ES9 and Onvo L90 to attract buyers.

The market overall isn’t booming, though. China’s passenger car sales are only expected to grow about 1% in 2026, with EVs making up around 61% of that. So while the market is flat, competition is heating up, and weaker players might get pushed out as companies fight for a slice of the pie.

Big players like BYD, SAIC, and FAW haven’t announced their targets yet, but last year BYD and SAIC were top sellers, moving 4.6 million and 4.5 million units. FAW sold 3.3 million. Chances are they’ll aim at least as high this year. All in all, seven automakers will probably target over 3 million units each in 2026.