RHB Research Predicts A Record-Breaking Year For Auto Industry

If monthly total industry volume (TIV) rises over the upcoming four months, RHB Research believes Malaysia's automotive industry will have another record-breaking year.

According to a note released by the research house, strong deliveries are anticipated in the second half of 2023, led primarily by brands with significant backlogs of unfulfilled orders, such as Perodua and Toyota, and fueled primarily by the introduction of the Perodua Axia and Toyota Vios.

“August’s TIV of 72,000 brought year-to-date (YTD) TIV to 502,000 units.

“The month saw a strong month-on-month (m-o-m) increase, mainly from Japanese carmakers such as Honda and Toyota, which rose by 30% and 23% respectively, driven by order backlogs,” the report reads.

RHB Research also predicted that the Malaysian Automotive Association's (MAA) 2023 forecast would coincide with the TIV estimate of 725,000 units for 2023.

Regarding 2024, RHB Research advised that if this year's TIV reaches a peak, next year's TIV may weaken year-over-year (y-o-y) due to a lack of catalysts to support high orders and deliveries.
“We are also expecting the backlog of major marques to gradually ease throughout the fourth quarter of 2023.

“While stronger electric vehicle (EV) adoption may be an upside risk to 2024’s TIV, we do not think this will be significant enough to move the needle,” it added.