Total Industry Volume Is Expected To Fall To 710,000 Units In 2024 - Kenanga


As the rationalization of fuel subsidies is expected to negatively impact the demand for mid-market models, Kenanga Research downgraded the automotive sector to "neutral" and predicted that total industry volume (TIV) would drop to 8% to 710,000 units in CY2024.
However, the research firm stated that it remains optimistic about vehicle sales in the affordable segment, with buyers, particularly those in the B40 group, avoiding the impact of subsidy rationalisation and potentially benefiting from the implementation of the progressive wage model.
"Our top pick in the sector is MBM Resources Bhd (outperform; target price: RM5.50), which is a good proxy for the low-cost, fuel-efficient Perodua vehicle brand."
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"It also offers an attractive dividend yield of about 11%," according to the statement.
Perodua and Proton models have also been selling well, according to Kenanga. When compared to non-national brands, they are reasonably priced and have cutting-edge safety and technological features.


Perodua, in particular, leads the new model race (in terms of volume) with the launch of the all-new Perodua Axia, which will be followed by two more facelifted models this year and one new model in early 2024.
“On the other hand, Proton recently launched the first mild-hybrid electric vehicle (MHEV) for the local brand, its all-new Proton X90, and its first sedan under Geely partnership, all-new Proton S70 (C-segment sedan at the price of non-nationals B-segment), Proton-SMART (BEV), and five face-lifted models, all within CY23,” it said.


Furthermore, Kenanga stated that new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will benefit from SST exemption and other EV incentives until CY2025 for complete built-up units and CY2027 for complete knocked-down (CKD) units.
“BEVs’ new registration had leapt significantly for the past two years (from 274 units in CY21 to over 3,400 units in CY22 and 9,000 units by Nov 2023) and is on track to meet national target for EVs and hybrid vehicles which are 15% of total industry volume (TIV) by CY30, and 38% of TIV by CY40.
“Meanwhile, the government’s pledge to enable charge point operators (CPOs) to secure faster approvals for installation provides comfort as currently only 1,434 EV charging stations have been built to-date,” it added.
Written By
Anis
Previously in banking and e commerce before she realized nothing makes her happier than a revving engine and gleaming tyres........
JPJ Running Numbers
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VQR2631
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SJQ9042
KUCHING
QAB4344N
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Last updated 26 Feb, 2026
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