Kenanga IB Projects 805k TIV for 2025, Outpacing Rivals' Forecasts

The total industry volume (TIV) of Malaysia's automotive sector is projected to grow modestly from an estimated 800,000 units in 2024 to 805,000 units in 2025, according to Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd (Kenanga IB).

This optimistic forecast contrasts sharply with the more conservative estimates of 750,000 units from rivals Maybank Investment Bank, as well as the 755,000 units forecasted by CIMB Securities.

Kenanga IB attributes its higher projection to strong demand in the budget vehicle segment, supported by Perodua’s order backlog exceeding 90,000 units and its consistent delivery performance.

Additionally, the industry is expected to benefit from consumers downsizing amid fuel subsidy rationalization, spurring interest in fuel-efficient, hybrid, and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), particularly as Chinese automakers localize manufacturing.

Furthermore, just as we had mentioned before, Kenanga IB also anticipates a mid-2025 review of the National Automotive Policy (NAP), emphasizing hybrids as a transitional option to surpass the national target of 15% EV and hybrid TIV by 2030, aiming for 38% by 2040.

This aligns with the anticipated rapid approval of EV charging stations, projected to grow from the current 4,235 planned units to over 10,000 by the end of 2025. Government incentives, including SST exemptions for BEVs until Dec 2025, are expected to further boost sales.

Meanwhile, motorcycle sales are expected to remain strong, with an estimated 680,000 units sold in 2025, driven by demand from the B40 and M40 groups, who are less affected by fuel subsidy adjustments. Yamaha is predicted to maintain its dominance with a 50% market share.

Souirce: BERNAMA