Carmakers Remain Robust Despite Global Sales Slowdown - Fitch

Anis

29-11-2023

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The newly launched Proton S70 comes in four variants with a starting price of RM 73,800.

According to Fitch Ratings, global vehicle sales will continue to grow in 2024, but at a slower pace due to weaker economic conditions and higher interest rates. Nonetheless, the agency anticipates that strong balance sheets will support the credit profiles of the majority of APAC automakers.
Despite higher interest rates, vehicle demand in the United States and Europe remained strong in 2023, and supply constraints have eased, but inventory levels remain relatively low.

The supply/demand balance remained favorable, particularly in the US market. Fitch predicts a mild US recession in early 2024, which could put a damper on demand.

“However, our forecast of 16 million units, a 5% increase from 2023, is still significantly lower than the pre-pandemic level of 17 million. In Europe, we anticipate a slowing of growth and a 4%-5% increase in demand in 2024”, it said.

Meanwhile, passenger vehicle sales growth in China slowed in 2023, with strong growth in new-energy vehicle (NEV) sales offsetting a decline in internal combustion engine vehicle sales. We anticipate that the trend will continue in 2024, with passenger-vehicle sales growing at a flat to low-single-digit rate.

Electric vehicle (EV) sales have continued to outpace overall sales in major markets, albeit by varying degrees. We anticipate strong growth in NEV sales and penetration in China in 2024, but slower growth in other markets, such as the United States.

Vehicle prices in the United States and Europe remained relatively stable in 2023, but could fall in 2024 due to mix normalization and higher incentives, as sales growth moderated. Given the aggressive pricing of local EV brands and the efforts of global automakers' joint-venture brands to catch up in EV sales, we believe the severe price competition in the Chinese EV market will likely continue.